Posted by Stephen Rhodes on June 28th, 2010 under Octagon Buzz Exclusive
Michael sent this in:
It’s amazing to think that Brock Lesnar’s mixed martial arts career began just three years ago. During that time, he has competed five times, including four wins, a dominant performance over a living legend and, of course, he has both won and successfully defended the UFC Heavyweight Championship.
Most fighters have dozens of fights before they ever challenge for a UFC championship, and the majority of those never actually win the title. Lesnar did it in his fourth professional bout.
It suffices to say that few other fighters in the history of our sport have achieved greater success so early in their career.
But none of that matters when he steps into the cage to defend his crown against possibly the best finisher the game has ever seen.
Shane Carwin, the interim titlist who will challenge Lesnar for the unified crown on Saturday night, has competed in mixed martial arts 12 times. All 12 of those fights have ended with Carwin’s hand raised inside of one round, with eight ending by strikes. A couple of his non-UFC bouts ended by guillotine choke. Lesnar has never before faced a guy with that sort of finishing record, and he certainly hasn’t faced anyone with Carwin’s punching power.
That has to have the champion just a bit apprehensive. If it doesn’t, he isn’t giving the challenger to his throne enough respect.
When the referee signals for the action to begin, Lesnar has a very important decision to make: will he throw a few punches or will he immediately shoot for a takedown?
That will be one of the pivotal moments in the fight, in my opinion.
Lesnar’s genetic gifts are almost cartoonish in nature. I cannot think of a single fighter in the sport with the same freakish size who is more explosive and athletic, and I’m certain that nobody has more raw physical power. Guys with those sorts of genetic gifts are typically playing defensive end or defensive tackle in the National Football League. Lesnar just so happens to be a mixed martial artist.
NFL monsters, like Julius Peppers, are convinced that they are invincible. The question is whether Lesnar has that same opinion of himself. If so, I suspect that he will come out looking to throw a few punches with Carwin, just like he did with Heath Herring, Randy Couture and Frank Mir (in the rematch).
The problem, of course, is that Herring, Couture or Mir don’t have the same juice in their strikes that Carwin brings to the cage. Just ask Mir or former title challenger Gabriel Gonzaga what happens when Carwin lands one of those ham hocks he calls fists on the chin, temple or ear. The result is similar to watching someone take a 12-gauge shotgun blast to the chest—they drop instantly and don’t get up for quite awhile.
There is no reason for Lesnar to risk losing his title to a one-punch knockout, which means there is no reason for Lesnar to stand and bang with Carwin for any length of time, not even for one second. He should instead explode out of his corner for an immediate double-leg takedown, like Lesnar did in his MMA debut against Min-Soo Kim.
Carwin knows that Lesnar’s goal is an early takedown, so he will be looking for that when the action gets underway. Although that will make it more difficult for the champion to accomplish his initial goal, Lesnar’s amateur wrestling pedigree, which surpasses those of all other UFC heavyweights, should carry the day. Moreover, Carwin will be seething with adrenaline at the beginning of the fight, so even though he knows a takedown is coming, the challenger will be ultra focused on timing the champion with an uppercut or possibly a flying knee, rather than sprawling and brawling in the opening seconds.
Once the action hits the ground, Lesnar must focus first on ground control and second on exacting damage, just like he did in the rematch with Mir. The key there is to maintain a wide, low base without posturing up, which will help prevent Carwin from hitting a sweep or escaping out the side door. Lesnar’s fight with Mir proved that he can cause ungodly amounts of damage with short arm punches on the ground. The champion is that powerful.
If he is able to hold Carwin down and pound on him for most of the first round, then the fight will change dramatically. Carwin is not an adept ground fighter, and he is not experienced at all in fighting for prolonged periods from his guard. I don’t care about training camp stories or Brazilian Jiu Jitsu belts. One never knows if a guy has the temperament to control his emotions and exertion levels fighting from the guard, both of which are important factors in avoiding unnecessary churn of a fighter’s gas tank, until he has actually been put in that situation in a fight. Thus, that remains a major unknown with Carwin, and something that I believe to be his biggest weakness.
Once Lesnar has spent the better part of the first round beating the cardio and strength out of Carwin, he can test his standup a bit, if he chooses, but that is still an extremely risky proposition. Anyone who watched Mike Russow knock out Todd Duffee late in the third round of their recent battle knows that any heavyweight can end any fight at any time with a single punch. And Russow is no Shane Carwin—not even close.
Lesnar is a big, bruising puncher in his own right. As Carwin tires and weakens, he will be able to pot shot a bit from the outside, provided that he remains committed to moving to his own right to avoid a counter right hand. Lesnar shouldn’t be as worried about walking into a Carwin left hook. The challenger throws a very good, short left hook, so he needs to be on the inside to land one with truly bad intentions. He has never really shown the ability to land a great leaping left hook. Thus, Lesnar should be safe circling to his own right.
Nonetheless, it would not shock me to see Carwin land anything—including a leaping left hook—and hurt Lesnar. If he is able to land any shot that causes Lesnar to cover up, he will be able to open throttle and fire away with reckless abandon, which will really put Lesnar in a bad position.
As a result, I stand by the notion that Lesnar should avoid standup exchanges like the bubonic plague.
By contrast, if Carwin can avoid the takedown, I don’t think there is any way he loses the fight, barring a shocking knockout punch landed by Lesnar. He is just too good and too powerful with his strikes. Anyone who watched his fight with Mir watched a vivid display of that fact.
Carwin had Mir pushed up against the cage in a half clinch. That is typically a very safe position as far as strikes are concerned because the attacker is smothering his own punches. Yet, Carwin knocked out Mir with left uppercuts thrown without any hip turn or leverage whatsoever. They were pure arm punches.
Imagine the damage that he can cause when he actually turns into a punch. Oh yes, he did precisely that against Gonzaga—laid into a right hand that dropped the former title challenger like the recipient of a shotgun blast. He can absolutely do the same thing to Lesnar.
If he wants that opportunity, Carwin needs to use a lot of lateral movement to avoid planting his feet in between Lesnar’s shoulders, which opens the door for an effective double-leg shot. By circling to his own left, he can remain in good position to throw his straight right hand and, at the same time, keep Lesnar off balance for a takedown.
Carwin knows that if the fight hits the ground, he must immediately scramble a la Chuck Liddell. He must get up at all costs. Forget about opening the door for submissions. Lesnar isn’t looking for them and won’t risk losing a dominant position by going for any sort of submission, other than an Americana, maybe.
Carwin must immediately brace his arms on the canvas, sit up and then work to his feet. He will take punches along the way, but Carwin knows that he can rely on his iron chin to survive some ground and pound, provided it isn’t a sustained attack.
What else should he do? Forget the knockout and just let his hands go. Don’t load up on shots, because haymakers are much more difficult to land than short, crisp shots.
Carwin’s game plan is that simple. Again, if he can avoid the takedown, I don’t see any way that he loses the fight.
One other major question mark in this fight is Carwin’s ability to fight beyond the first round. His training partners talk about how he seems to have endless cardiovascular conditioning during training. A fight is not training. A fight isn’t anything like training. Until a fighter actually fights to the distance, neither he nor anyone else knows if he can actually last that long.
As mentioned above, Carwin has never fought beyond the first round. Lesnar’s game plan of methodically taking him down, controlling him and pounding away round after round is the right way to put Carwin’s cardio to the test.
Can the challenger control his emotions and adrenaline when fighting on the bottom? Can he carry 280 lbs for more than a round? More than two? More than three?
Lesnar should be focused on dragging Carwin into the deep waters of the third, fourth and fifth rounds. Carwin should be focused on landing his massive mitts on Lesnar’s dome in the first.
Carwin shouldn’t punch himself out early, but he also shouldn’t fight too conservatively in an attempt to save himself until later in the fight. Either Carwin has the gas to last or he doesn’t. He should just fight his fight, which means looking to land something of consequence as early and often as possible. That approach gives him the best chance to win.
So, what is going to happen? I honestly have no idea. It is impossible to predict an outcome when two monsters like Lesnar and Carwin collide. All I know is that I am not going to miss this one for anything.
QUICK FACTS
Brock Lesnar
• 32 years old
• 6’3, 265 lbs
• 81-inch reach
• 4-1 overall (3-1 UFC)
• 4 of 5 professional fights have ended inside the distance (3 wins by strikes and 1 loss by submission)
• 2-0 in UFC title fights
• Current UFC Heavyweight Champion
• Current layoff of 357 days is the longest of his professional career
Shane Carwin
• 35 years old
• 6’2, 265 lbs
• 80-inch reach
• 12-0 overall (4-0 UFC)
• All 4 UFC fights have ended by strikes in the first round
• UFC bouts have lasted an average of 93 seconds
• 1-0 in UFC title fights*
• Current UFC Interim Heavyweight Champion
• Current layoff is 98 days
• Career long layoff is 385 days (KO1 over Gabriel Gonzaga on March 7, 2009, until KO1 over Frank Mir on March 27, 2010
*Includes interim title fights
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