socialvanglangleyblog: UFC 129

Saturday, April 30, 2011

UFC 129 – Predictions

It’s been awhile since I have made any predictions on a UFC pay-per-view; however, I am going to take a stab at predicting the 12 bouts that are on the fight card for UFC 129.

UFC 129 is scheduled to take place on Saturday, April 30, from Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

I’m going to start with the preliminary card, that will stream on FACEBOOK:

PRELIMINARY CARD (FACEBOOK)

Yves Jabouin (15-6) vs. Pablo Garza (10-1): This bout will have two fighters with different styles: Jabouin is a striker while Garza uses the ground. This one’s pretty simple. If Jabouin can use his fists effectively, he should win this one. If Garza can get Jabouin on the nat, he can pull this one out. While Jabouin has the edge in terms of experience, I think Garza should be able to win via submission. Garza by submission, mid-2nd round.
John Makdessi (8-0) vs. Kyle Watson (13-6-1): This could very well be a tossup as Makdessi is entering his second UFC bout while Watson was a part of Season 12 of The Ultimate Fighter. Makdessi specializes in Shotokan Karate while Watson’s meal ticket is BJJ. I like Makdessi’s chances in this one, with a TKO being the end result. Makdessi by TKO, late-1st round.
Jason McDonald (23-14) vs. Ryan Jensen (15-7): Both are journeymen, with McDonald havinjg the edge in experience. This bout should be entertaining and fun to watch as both are submission specialists. I’ve always liked McDonald’s style of fighting; that doesn’t minimize what Jensen has done in his career whatsoever. This one, unfortunately, will probably go to the judges. McDonald by unanimous decision.
Ivan Menjivar (21-8) vs. Charlie Valencia (12-6): Only his second UFC bout, Menjivar is going up against Valencia, who has a more well-rounded game. Perhaps this bout will convince Menjivar to retire from MMA – for good. Valencia by submission, early-2nd round.
Claude Patrick (13-1) vs. Daniel Roberts (12-1): Both fighters specialize in BJJ, which should make this bout a candidate for Submission of the Night. This one could go either way. But having seen Patrick in action, I have to give the edge to him. Patrick by submission, early-3rd round.

PRELIMINARY CARD (SPIKE TV)

Sean Pierson (11-4) vs. Jake Ellenberger (24-5): Pierson is probably going to have the crowd on his side, being a Toronto native. While he does have BJJ skills with a Greco-Roaman background, I do not see this being an even match against the younger Ellenberger. This one should end early as the ground-and-pound should help Ellenberger. My pick for Knockout of the Night. Ellenberger by TKO, mid-2nd round.
Nate Diaz (13-6) vs. Rory McDonald (10-1): Both fighters are relatively young (Diaz is 26 while McDonald is 21) and possess decent BJJ skills, with Diaz getting his skills from the Gracie camp. Meanwhile, McDonald is out of Tri Gym. Both also have some boxing skills to fall back on, yet at the end of the day, I see McDonald getting the best of Diaz in a bout that inevitably will go to the judges. McDonald by unanimous decision.

MAIN CARD

Mark Bocek (9-3) vs. Ben Henderson (12-2): This is a matchup I really like as both share similar styles, with both heavy on the BJJ background. I expect the fight to go to the mat, with the usual peaks and valleys in terms of who is doing well throughout the 3-round bout. my candidate for the Fight of the Night. Henderson by unanimous decision.
Randy Couture (19-10) vs. Lyoto Machida (16-2): This fight is Couture’s last professionally, regardless of the end result. So look for a standing ovation from the crowd at Rogers Centre. Machida, as we all know, has that extensive BJJ background while Couture’s is a wrestling background. Couture should win if the fight stays upright, while Machida might win if the fight goes to the mat. Tough call either way. For sentimental reasons, I’m going with Couture and the proper send-off. Couture by unanimous decision.
Vladimir Matyushenko (25-5) vs. Jason Brilz (18-3): There’s something about watching a pair of geezers get into the Octagon that just doesn’t do it for me as MMA is a young fella’s game. Matyushenko is 40 while Brilz is 35. Both share similar wrestling backgrounds, so this one’s almost guaranteed to go to the mat. Unfortunately, this one will probably go to the judges. Matyushenko by unanimous decision.
Jose Aldo (18-1) vs. Mark Hominick (20-8): While this is a championship title bout, I sense that this one isn’t going to have the feel of a title matchup. As much as I hate to say it, Aldo’s hunger, along with his superior MMA skills, will make this one end early. Aldo by TKO, mid-1st round.
Georges St. Pierre (21-2) vs. Jake Shields (26-4-1): This one has been awaited for some time, and I think both fighters will deliver the goods, in terms of the action within the Octagon. St. Pierre has fought tough competition during his career, yet Shields is no slouch himself as there is a reason he went straight from Strikeforce to a title bout in the UFC. By the way, this is my upset special. Shields by TKO, mid-3rd round.